a test of ostatus
About 20 years ago something new arose on the Web, it was called web logging, or ‘blogging. People would write long and thoughtful articles about their interests.
And a few years later we got RSS, which was a way of syndicating the content of your blog. Other people could read it in whatever app they preferred.
And a few years after that, Google (back when they still had “do no evil” in their mission statement) invented Google Reader, which was an easy way to scoop up and read the content from your favorite blogs. The combination of using Google Reader to follow the RSS feeds of your favorite blogs created a complete and compelling ecosystem around high quality, independent publishing.
In the mid-2000s a few other publishing services came into being, and a few big winners emerged — notably Facebook and Twitter. These services were very different from the old blogging ecosystem. They were centrally controlled and their design encouraged people to spend many hours consuming bite-size, throwaway content because that was the best way to sell more ads. Google entered this category with Google+ in 2011, and shortly thereafter discontinued Reader. Reader could be seen as a competitor to G+ and it never made much money.
The old blogging and syndication scene never really recovered from the death of Reader, it is still used and appreciated by many today, but it’s Facebook, Twitter and (kind of) Google who shape the world zeitgeist. A zeitgeist in which we grapple with fake news, elections rigged by foreign powers, privacy relegated to a past age. Congressional hearings and EU regulations to keep these monsters at bay.
One wonders if the world itself might be a very different place today, had Google shown some vision and doubled down on something like Reader. Doubled down on promoting thoughtful, independent content instead of A/B optimizing for maximum engagement with advertising.
Maybe economics dictated that the world of today was inevitable, maybe not. But from Mastodon to Medium, most new publishing tools are seeking a cure for an industry that is quite clearly sick. One wonders.
TL;DR it will grow. Twitter/FB will remain the largest players but become increasingly censored and uninteresting; clusters of Mastodon instances which don’t federate with each other, as well as other services, will absorb the resulting exodus. 2023 is a future where social is fragmented.
If you look at the adoption pattern and growth rate of Mastodon, it has around 1.5M users, the majority of which have arrived via three big waves.
The first wave was people with left wing identities who were tired of being harassed on mainstream platforms like Twitter.
The second wave was Japanese lolicon enthusiasts (without diving too deep down this rabbit hole, lolicon is a popular but weird and nerdy thing to be into in Japan).
The third wave was sex workers in response to SESTA/FOSTA eliminating platforms they used in the past.
All these waves set up their own instances, and they don’t communicate much with the other waves.
If you look at what these waves all have in common (aside from using the software), there’s just one thing. They were all posting stuff that didn’t fit in on a mainstream platform. In the first case it was due to harassment, in the second it was embarrassment, in the third it was legality.
The users are already bifurcating the network, admins routinely share blocklists of sites that they don’t want included in their version of the fediverse. Being able to block instances and people you don’t like is one of Mastodon’s killer features.
I don’t think it will become the next outrage machine, people will just block and bifurcate. I do think users will keep setting up Mastodon instances in waves similar to the first three. I’d be surprised if Mastodon ever powered a better version of the commons we currently have on FB, Twitter etc.  The feature Mastodon added to federation (and that made it more popular than similar software) is the ability to not federate with people who are different from you.
 The “fediverse” at large has some potential to do this if it receives mass adoption. Think of a scenario like WordPress integrating federation features into the Core. This would bring federation to the mainstream.
The concept of antifragility is frequently misunderstood and misinterpreted, partly because Taleb contradicts himself when defining it and partly because most people haven’t actually read his book. Taleb defines resiliency as being suffering adversity and remaining the same. Antifragility builds upon resiliency; when an antifragile system suffers adversity it actually responds by improving itself.
The simplest path to resiliency is redundancy, for double the cost you can acquire two of everything and if the first one fails or runs out you have a replacement ready to go. This principle can be applied to many things. You can train two employees to do the same thing in case one quits. You can buy two rolls of toilet paper so you don’t have to run to the store with poopy pants. You can date two people at once in case one of them turns out to be a sociopath.
Antifragility manifests most commonly as a system of resilient competing entities. A free market is a generic example. If the price of oil spikes the guys who sell gas heaters ramp up production and can even benefit from economies of scale. Applying this concept on a personal level is tricky. Taleb cites an options contract as an application of antifragility. He uses the example of the philosopher Thales who optioned an olive press. In a year with a poor harvest he didn’t exercise the option and his sunk cost was low. In a year with a good harvest he exercised it and made a lot of money. No matter what happens in the world of olives, Thales wins.
Broadly speaking you can apply optionality in your personal life by not making assumptions about the future, and keeping your options open. Keep your fixed expenses low and save your money for investing when prices drop. Build skills that are transferable to other jobs/industries. Get a prenup before you get married. And so on. These opportunities are harder to spot and define than resiliency/redundancy. But I think Taleb would argue they’re the difference between survival and success.
- If you’re American, you should support Google developing technology for the US military.
- If you’re human, you should support a foreign policy that only considers military action as a last resort.
- If you’re human, you should support early, aggressive, global regulation of the military applications of AI and drones. We made this mistake with nuclear. We leveled Hiroshima, we leveled Nagasaki, we fueled decades of animosity between the Soviets and the West that still plagues the world today. We need to do better next time. The biggest abuser might be the US again but it could just as easily be China.
- If you’re human, you should support regulation that forbids Google from using your personal for military applications without your express and informed consent.
Substitute Google for any other tech giant’s name.
The typical knowledge worker functions on some blend of the manager and maker schedules — sometimes they need to do deep work without interruptions, sometimes they need to look up from their desk and communicate to make sure their output is aligned with the company. A private space free of distractions facilitates the former but an open plan is actually pretty good for the latter.
The best solution (I’m surprised more companies have not implemented this) is to provide both environments and give the employee some guidance in terms of where they choose to work. Most knowledge workers will not benefit from the monastic strategy described in this article but almost all will benefit from a bimodal or rhythmic strategy.
If you already have an open plan office this is as easy as telling the employee he/she can work remotely a few days a week as long as they select a quiet space that’s free of distractions (so if they have kids running around at home during the day, maybe better to advise them to go to the library instead).
The manager should provide some guidance in terms of how much time the employee spends remotely vs. “on the floor” with everyone else. Graham’s maker vs. manager article is great on this topic, engineers often err a little too far in the direction of isolation, managers err too far in the direction of having everyone in the collaborative environment, the solution is a little dialogue.
With very light guidance and very little additional cost to the business you can improve both productivity and morale this way. Our team functions best very far down the deep work end of the spectrum — we have one day a week where everyone goes into the office or gets on calls and gets aligned. For the rest of the week communication is mostly async and work is mostly remote.
I have no problem at all with websites using browser mining as an alternate monetization strategy to ads, as long as:
1) Permission is requested first
2) The UX is good (it stays out of my way and doesn’t slow down my device)
3) The mining finishes when I leave the site
Most of the problems with the modern web stem from the failure of browser vendors to implement a good user-centric permissions model. They all hold an unquestioned belief that more power in the platform is always better, and they’ve all spent the past 15 years kowtowing to developers, advertisers, and profit-motivated corporations instead of protecting their users from the above.
I want a simple, limited, fast, secure, document-centric platform which allows the site to request the execution of additional functions. Publishers unsurprisingly abuse the freedom they currently enjoy to throw up popovers on every page, secretly steal CPU cycles, load-on-demand videos that follow me as I scroll, and track every move I make online. I don’t want any of that to work by default.
A common, well-intentioned argument against my point of view in the last few years has been that the web platform needs to compete with native mobile apps. That argument carried a lot more weight when everyone was installing tons of native apps. But increasingly we’re at the point where we’re sick of native apps for all the same reasons we’re sick of the web — they too are bloated attention + data thieves.
We need a true user-first platform. I’ll pay for sites or apps on that platform, or I’ll let them use my CPU to mine crypto. I just want them to not suck.
Microsoft, Mozilla and Apple could all lead the way in shipping browsers that are pro-user. Mozilla’s got the heart for it, Microsoft and Apple have little to lose. Leaders at all these companies have failed to lead and demonstrate vision, relegating themselves to playing second fiddle to Google on the web because they think shitty popup ads will be the final word in web history.
I support @EFF because digital rights are human rights. https://eff.org/join
At Command Media we’re making our company donation to the Electronic Freedom Foundation this year. The EFF is at the forefront of defending your digital rights: privacy, free speech and more. Why is our 2017 donation going to the EFF?
#1) Bowing to the interests of big media conglomerates, the W3C standardized DRM in your web browser. Thanks to this new standard, Hollywood can now decide which web browser you must use to view its movies. And while the battle this year was over video, next year it might be over blocking ads, or listening to music. The EFF resigned from the W3C in protest and continues to lead the fight against DRM. I was very sorry to see the W3C take the wrong side on this, when my career began they were the good guys fighting for an open Internet.
#2) This was the year that Net Neutrality died in America when the FCC under Ajit Pai repealed the Open Internet Order. The rules had their problems, but the repeal paves the way for big ISPs like Comcast to charge you more for content if it doesn’t come from one of their corporate partners (in other words, other big companies who pay them).
This action will suppress competition in online services and limit which websites you can use.
We need new laws which guarantee Net Neutrality. I urge Congress and the President to support free enterprise and competition, and create these laws.
The EFF continues to be one of Net Neutrality’s strongest advocates.
#3) In 2017 global press freedom declined to the lowest level so far this century. And a new twist was added: in addition to arresting, detaining and prosecuting bloggers and journalists, a growing number of governments are coming down on social media users who like, share or post political content.
The EFF provides legal defense and advocates for the rights of Internet users who are prosecuted for speaking truth to power.
Consider all of the events above and what they mean for the big picture. If we don’t do something the future will be very different from today. We are entering a world where big corporations and governments decide what you can and can’t look at online, depending on whether it makes them more money or keeps them in power. Let alone what you can post.
Small actions do make a difference. Install a browser which respects your rights, like Firefox. Write your Congressman in support of Net Neutrality. Donate to the EFF or a related organization today.
It’s remarkable how well some of Richard Stallman’s quotes have aged. “With software, either the users control the program, or the program controls the users…”
The idea of a program controlling its users must have seemed very esoteric when that quote was first penned in 1985, at a time when home PCs (let alone ones with GUIs) were exotic: the first Mac had launched only a year ago. By the time I first heard of Stallman’s ideas in the ’90s, I was surrounded by PCs with GUIs, but still didn’t get it.
Now here we are, 30 years later. The first thing most of us do when we wake up is roll over, grab our phone, and look at some software. The existential costs of the non-free software are so high that we read new stories about them in the media every week, and the tech revolution’s architects are banning the products they built from their own homes.
For the less frequently cited ending to Stallman’s quote is this: “…If the program controls the users, and the developer controls the program, then the program is an instrument of unjust power.”