Asian Geopolitical Predictions, September 2022

The caveat here is that nothing really bad has happened since the end of the Cold War, but I like to write down predictions and find out in a few years whether I was right or not. No specific timeline for this. This sounds great.

A) Encouraged by deterioration of global supply chains, domestic unrest, and Xi Jinping thought/Wolf Warrior diplomacy/whatever, China takes Taiwan, giving it a strategic position in the first island chain.

B) US fails to retake Taiwan and commences a military buildup in the region. New US bases from Japan down to Southeast Asia.

C) The resulting sanctions and embargoes end supply chains as we know them. Small and export-led economies are the hardest hit. North America fares the best as it has the capacity to be self-sufficient in energy, manufacturing etc. Europe somewhere in between.

And here I was just last week feeling I was underweight on ex-US stocks…